It is often said that new producers, relatively inexperienced producers and outsiders with no clue about the potential of a film, burn their hands by making films out of ignorance. They lose crores on movies. The success rate in Tollywood is a paltry 8 to 10%. That is, about ninety percent of the movies don't make money.
If you are a new producer, you have to learn about the numbers of 'Balagam', which is produced by Dil Raju Productions. The film was released in theatres last week, and has been declared a sleeper hit.
Dil Raju has revealed that, on the opening day, the film was watched by 30,000 people in theatres. On Day Two, about 40,000 people watched it. On Day Three (which was a Sunday), about 70,000 people watched it.
Despite positive reviews (they matter for small movies) and Dil Raju's brand image, despite the backing by top theatres in A centres and other territories, only about 30,000 people watched 'Balagam' on Day One.
This should give an estimate for new producers. Even a film like 'Balagam', which enjoyed positive 'word of mouth', was watched by no more than 2,50,000 people in the first five days. Budgets have to be planned accordingly by producers given the harsh realities. A lot of new producers are clueless. They sometimes get carried away by rosy pictures peddled by directors/actors/distributors.